Dienstag, 8. Juli 2008

The best laid plans...




Well, admittedly it wasn't much of a plan, but I did want to get out of Puerto Lopez and get back into the mountains.

Unfortunately, the peasants (say it with spite, the way "bloody peasants" sounds in Monty Python and The Holy Grail) have started putting blockades up on major roads throughout the country. So Jipijapa was the end of the road after a 7am start. It could have been worse, though, since I'm now back on the beach until Thursday rather than being stuck somewhat farther inland.

I think (because I'm piecing together info from two newspapers, neither of which mentions the strike or peasant unrest) the campesinos are protesting against price increases for much of their input factors on the one side, and price controls imposed by the Ecuadorian government, most notably on corn, flour and bread, which probably means they find themselves between a rock and a hard place.

Here a quote from the Guayaquil newspaper "El Universo" (article about the resignation of the head of the National Development Bank):

"Las ultimas resoluciones del gobierno de poner un precio techo para la saca de la graminea a USD28, de USD12,50 para el maiz y la advertencia de fijar un precio oficial para el pan (...) causaron divergencias.
(...) [said the former head of the bank:]
'Mi propuesta era comprar arroz mas caro (a mas de USD28 a traves de la BNF [National Development Bank]) y venderselo al consumidor mas barato, porque el es el que necesita del subsidio' indicó. A su criterio, no deberian limitarse al agricultor, cuando tiene oportunidad de recibir un valor alto por cuestiones del mercado."


The bloke who resigned is probably right, because by artificially lowering the peasants' selling price for their produce, incentives for future investment in agriculture which could increase the production of grain are being cut out of the market. I'm not sure if there is much leeway for an increase in the amount of land under cultivation, but I think it's safe to assume an increase in per-acre productivity could be achieved relatively easily if the inventives were right.

A direct subsidy to consumers would probably be healthier for the agriculture sector, even if it is associated with more visible direct cost to state coffers.

If things keep going at this rate, we'll be seeing "official bakeries" with empty shelves and a black market in all sorts of price-controlled goods spring up. Sounds like a scenario from the late Eastern Block economies. Things already seem to be headed in that direction, albeit in a very reduced corner of the market:

[Said the head of a nationwide chain of bakeries:]
" 'Desgraciadamente, la harina subsidiada no es para todos' señala Muñoz, en referencia al tiempo que tarda obtener un pedido."


Just my 2cents worth :-)

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